A MESSAGE FROM SIGHTLINE REGARDING COVID-19
What If?
Useful insights were just a click away.
They Are

Sightline Weekly Market Update: Market Reacts to Positive Economic Data

Equities finished the week mixed with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. For eight consecutive weeks, large-cap growth outpaced value as reflected in the Russell 1000 Growth Index. In June, strong performance from technology and health care along with consumer discretionary propelled the S&P 500.

The TSX finished the week and month flat and up 2.48%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained 1.67% during the week and closed the month up 2.33%. The technology-dominated Nasdaq advanced 1.94% in the week and closed the month up 5.55%. The mid-cap and small-cap indices were negative for the week. The European equity markets, except for the French CAC-40 (losing 1.06%), were generally down slightly on continued concerns of earlier-than-anticipated rate increases.

Positive economic data kicked off the week with the Conference Board’s release of the latest Consumer Confidence Index, improving to 127.3 (the highest level since March 2020) from May’s 120.00. The Present Situation Index, which is consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, jumped to 157.7 from 148.7. The Expectations Index also rose to 107.0 from last month’s 100.9. The Expectation Index is based on the consumer’s future outlook for business, income and labor markets.1

Consumers’ opinions of the labor conditions improved with 54.4% of consumers indicating jobs were “plentiful” compared to last month’s 48.5%, and consumers who claimed jobs were hard to find dropped to 10.9% from 11.6%.2

The ISM Manufacturing Index retreated to 60.6% in June from the 61.2% reported in May. (A reading above 50 is an indication of a growing economy.) Encouraging, 17 of the 18 industry groups surveyed reported expansion in June over May, with no industry sector reporting a contraction. While new orders fell slightly to 66% in June from May’s 67%, 15 of the 18 industry groups reported growing order books. Also noted were chronic labor and materials shortages, along with delivery issues creating delays in filling orders. Delivery issues continue to plague 17 of the 18 reporting industry groups.3

In other economic data, pending home sales jumped 8% in May on declining mortgage rates after homes sales declined in April.4 The initial jobless claims fell 51,000 to 364,000, the lowest level since last year’s pandemic low. However, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 3.47 million from last week’s pandemic low.5 The big surprise for the week was the BLS (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) nonfarm jobs report, reporting employment rose by 850,0006 compared to the Bloomberg median expectation of 720,000.7 As expected, Leisure and Hospitality added 343,000 jobs, followed by Government (188,0000) and Retail (67,000). Manufacturing added 15,000, while construction lost 7,000. Wages also increased by 10 cents to $30.40 for the average hourly employee, but interestingly, the average workweek for all employees decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.7 hours. The decrease in Manufacturing was 0.2 hours to 40.2 hours, and overtime decreased by 0.1 hours to 3.2 hours. The participation rate for June remained unchanged at 61.6.8

The market reaction to the positive economic data pushed equities higher and the 10-year Treasuries lower, indicating earlier fears that inflationary pressures would result in an adjustment to the timeline for a US Fed rate response were misplaced, at least temporarily. With rates on the 10-year Treasury pulling back from earlier highs, the bond market does not appear to be too concerned that the Fed will change course anytime soon. The pull-back in rates has re-invigorated growth stocks pushing indices higher. Time will tell if the inflationary pressures coming from the supply side are transitory as policymakers suggest or more permanent. Currently, market participants appear to be siding with policymakers.

Late last year, as the 10-year Treasuries rates rose, we witnessed a rotation into the value inflation trade from growth. As mentioned earlier, rates have declined since mid-April and the markets have rotated back to the growth trade. As the markets creep higher, valuations are looking a little stretched, and once again, concerns of a market correction become worrisome. Market action is looking tired, and a correction or a pause would not be unexpected as we head into the later stages of the summer. Q2 earnings season may provide some guidance regarding future earnings and support current valuations if rates remain stable. Inflation is almost always initially interpreted as transitory. If it becomes apparent that inflation is more entrenched, the Fed response is likely to trigger an adverse reaction in equity markets.

 

Sources:

1https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

2https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

3https://assets.realclear.com/files/2021/07/1842_ism.pdf

4 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-surge-higher-but-economists-warn-that-the-housing-market-could-soon-hit-bottom-11625062462?mod=economic-report

5 https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

6 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

7 https://www2.staffingindustry.com/site/Research/Research-Reports/Americas/July-2021-US-Jobs-Report

8 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

Important Information:

Warren Gerow is an independent investment wealth consultant to Sightline Wealth Management.

Sightline Wealth Management LP (“Sightline”) is an investment dealer and is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Sightline provides management and investment advisory services to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors primarily through fee-based accounts.

Sightline Wealth Management LP is a wholly owned subsidiary of Ninepoint Financial Group Inc. (“NFG Inc.”). NFG Inc. is also the parent company of Ninepoint Partners LP, it is an investment fund manager and advisor and exempt market dealer. By virtue of the same parent company, Sightline is affiliated with Ninepoint Partners LP. Information and/or materials contained herein is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of any issuer or any portfolio managed by Sightline Wealth Management or Ninepoint Partners, including Ninepoint managed funds.

The opinions and information contained in this article are those of Sightline Wealth Management (“Sightline”) as of the date of this article and are subject to change without notice. Sightline endeavors to ensure that the content has been compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable. The information is not meant to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions and should not be constructed as advice. Each investor should obtain independent advice before making any investment decisions.

Sightline Wealth Management Royal Bank Plaza,
South Tower 200
Bay Street Suite 2700 Toronto,
Ontario M5J 2J1
   

© Copyright 2020
Sightline Wealth Management
CIPFFCPE | IIROC CIPFFCPE | IIROC